Polit Journal Scientific Journal of Politics

From Climate Diplomacy to Strategic Rivalry: The Reshaping of Arctic Governance amidst Great-Power Competition (2023–2026)

Belay Sitotaw Goshu, Muhammad Ridwan — Sun, 23 Aug 2026 07:24:08 +0000

The period 2023–2026 represents a critical juncture in Arctic governance, marking the transformation from a regime characterized by "exceptionalism", the insulation of regional cooperation from broader geopolitical tensions, to one shaped by strategic competition, yet retaining sufficient institutional resilience to address functional challenges through adaptive mechanisms. This study examines how the Russian invasion of Ukraine, NATO's northern expansion with the accession of Finland and Sweden, and the recalibration of great-power strategies by the United States, Russia, and China have fundamentally altered the Arctic's institutional architecture and security dynamics. Drawing on regime theory, geopolitical realism, and the concept of Arctic exceptionalism, the analysis reveals three interlocking transformations: the Arctic Council's survival in a diminished capacity, the emergence of a governance gap created by Russia's exclusion, and the fragmentation of governance through sub-regional, bilateral, and middle-power initiatives. While functional cooperation on climate change, scientific research, and Indigenous issues persists, the space for such cooperation has narrowed considerably as re-securitization reshapes the region's strategic landscape. The study advances a reconceptualization of Arctic exceptionalism, arguing that the region remains empirically distinct but no longer insulated from geopolitical volatility. Policy implications for Arctic states, non-Arctic actors, and international institutions are examined, alongside three future scenarios: continued fragmentation, institutional adaptation, or escalation and crisis. The Arctic's capacity to avoid a new Cold War depends on whether strategic rivalry can be managed without destroying the cooperative frameworks painstakingly built over three decades.

The Nile as a Sacred Cord: Interrogating the Egypt-Ethiopia-Israel Triangle through Biblical Narrative, Stellar Hydrology, and Geopolitical Ontology

Belay Sitotaw Goshu, Muhammad Ridwan — Thu, 03 Sep 2026 02:56:51 +0000

The historical and geopolitical entanglement of Egypt, Ethiopia, and Israel presents a persistent puzzle in interdisciplinary scholarship. While these nations have been studied independently within Egyptology, Ethiopian Studies, and Biblical Archaeology, their ontological unity has remained underexamined. The Nile River, flowing from the Ethiopian Highlands through Egypt, serves as a literal and metaphorical "sacred cord" binding these three nations together. This paper proposes a new hermeneutical framework; the "Sacred Cord" paradigm for understanding the Egypt-Ethiopia-Israel triangle through biblical narrative, stellar hydrology, and geopolitical ontology. The study employs an interdisciplinary methodology integrating biblical exegesis, historical geography, archaeoastronomy, and political theology. Primary sources include the Masoretic Text, Septuagint, Ethiopian Orthodox traditions (Kebra Nagast), and contemporary geopolitical analyses. The biblical narratives of Moses' Cushite marriage, Solomon's Egyptian alliance, and the Holy Family's flight to Lake Tana constitute a coherent theological-hydrographical ontology. This ontology finds empirical validation in the annual rising of Sirius over Ethiopia and the subsequent flooding of the Nile, and modern political urgency in the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) dispute. The triangle reflects God's inclusive, Trinitarian, and covenantal character, challenging ethnic pride and offering a theology of mutual dependency. The Nile is not a resource to be monopolized but a "living covenant" between nations. The "Sacred Cord" model offers a theological foundation for equitable water sharing, suggesting that a "Nile Compact" inspired by biblical visions of mutual blessing could facilitate cooperation over conflict among riparian states.